The Road to the Playoffs: Odds, Ifs, and Maybes
- Arnaud Dignocourt
- Aug 9
- 6 min read
While everyone is wondering which teams still have a shot at the playoffs, we turned to ELFpedia.eu for some clarity, using math, not guesswork. ELF Pedia is a data-driven platform that provides valuable insights and up-to-date resources like current rosters, standings, and stats, which we often rely on for our coverage. Here’s how they broke down the playoff odds and who’s still in the race… and who’s not:
“We applied a probabilistic forecasting model using one million Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining ELF season schedule. Game outcomes were weighted according to team Elo ratings, generating realistic win probabilities for each matchup. Final standings were computed using official ELF tiebreaker rules (Wins → Strength of Victory → Strength of Schedule → Point Differential → Points For). This approach produces a robust statistical estimate of playoff odds and seeding likelihoods, accounting for schedule variance, competitive balance, and potential multi-team tiebreak scenarios”
We wanted to let you read that explanation written by Oli because he puts his whole heart into the whole “ELF Pedia” project. And we want to address him a special thanks for what he gives to the community. Before we get things start : here are all the Tie-Breakers:
Number of wins
Win Percentage within Division
Head-to-head matchup
Strength of Victory (SOV)
Strength of Schedule (SOS)
Points difference in head-to-head matchups
Points scored at away games of head-to-head matchups
Total point difference *
Total points scored
Points scored at away games
Coin toss performed by the Commissioner or a person determined by the Commissioner
Let’s begin with what we can already affirm. 4 teams are already 100% in: the Vienna Vikings, the Munich Ravens, the Nordic Storm and the Stuttgart Surge. It’s harder to define who will be first and second seed, which are the two important seeds for the fans, as these two are the ones that play the semi-final at home.
The Vienna Vikings: Ideal Situation for the Austrians?
With two wins in their last two games (against the Panthers and the Musketeers), the Vikings will finish with an 11-1 record and automatically clinch first place in the regular season, without depending on any other results. If they lose a game and the Ravens or Storm also finish 10-2, they risk losing first place in the tiebreaker. They are currently the only team that possess his destiny in his hands.
The Munich Ravens: Best odds for the Bavarians!
To finish first, they must: Win their last two games (Bravos and Panthers) to get up to 11-1. But, they’ll have to hope for at least one Vikings loss. This would create a 11-1 tie, with the Ravens having the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Vikings. In the event of a three-way tie (Ravens, Vikings, Storm at 10-2): It will depend on head-to-head results and point average. The Ravens will need to have beaten the other two or be favored by other tiebreaker criterias.
The Nordic Storm: High hopes but still…
To clinch the first seed, they’ll have to win their last two games (SeaDevils and Rhein Fire), they would be 11-1. But still, they’ll have to hope that the Vikings and Ravens each lose at least one game. This could create a 11-1 tie, in which case the Storm could prevail if the tiebreakers are in their favor. Even with two wins, their fate is not in their own hands. They are dependent on the results of other teams.
The Stuttgart Surge: Give them a miracle!
It’s not impossible but let’s be real, odds are not on their side… So, first step, win their last two games (Centurions and Enthroners), this would give them a 10-2 record. But, The Vikings, Ravens, and Storm have to all lose their last two games, so that no one exceeds 9 wins. This would result in a 9-3 tie, where the Surge could emerge first according to the tiebreakers. As we said: Very low probability: only a 0.31% chance of finishing first according to ELF Pedia’s simulations.
THE RACE TO GET IN:
Now, let’s focus on the two last seeds that the playoff provides, the fifth and the sixth. They will be awarded to the two best remaining teams, across all divisions, excluding the division winners. So, to simplify, the two best seconds in the whole league access the post season. Here is a complete point total for each team still in contention.
The Madrid Bravos:
With a 38.19% chance of securing seed 5 and a 23.56% chance of securing seed 6, the Madrid Bravos are currently best placed in the race for the last two playoff spots. According to simulations, they have approximately a 61.75% chance of qualifying.
However, their fate is not completely sealed. They have two games left to play: against the Munich Ravens, leaders of the division, and then against the Frankfurt Galaxy, who are also in the playoff hunt.
A single win would probably be enough to secure their place in the postseason. A final record of 8-4 would put them firmly in the group of contenders for the top 6, with a positive differential and a favorable division ranking.
On the other hand, two losses would drop them to 7-5, exposing them to a logjam of teams tied for the same record. In that case, their qualification would depend on the results of Paris, Wrocław, and Prague, and on possible tiebreakers, where the slightest mistake could prove costly.
The Rhein Fire: A crucial final sprint:
The team has approximately a 58.62% chance of qualifying, split between 28.57% for seed 5 and 30.05% for seed 6. The mission is clear: win.
The Fire will face two direct opponents to conclude the season: the Paris Musketeers and the Nordic Storm, both contenders for the top 4. With two wins, the Fire would finish 8-4 and be almost assured of qualifying. With just one win (7-5), things would get complicated, but their conference record (4-1) and good point average (+116) could work in their favor. On the other hand, two losses would most likely eliminate them.
The Paris Musketeers: Under pressure, but still in control:
With approximately a 37.24% chance of qualifying (16.33% for seed 5, 20.91% for seed 6), the Musketeers don't have a huge margin, but their fate remains largely in their own hands.
Their schedule is daunting: Rhein Fire, then Vienna Vikings, the two best teams in the North and East. If they manage to win both games, their qualification would be almost certain (8-4). A single victory would bring them to 7-5, which could be enough depending on the results of other teams, notably Madrid, Wrocław, and Frankfurt. But a 6-6 finish to the season would put them in serious danger. They could then be overtaken by several rivals ranked higher in the conference or on point average.
The Prague Lions: Still alive, but without a safety net.
The Prague Lions have two games left to play if they hope to make the playoffs. Currently at 6-4, they have about a 25.43% chance of qualifying (10.76% for seed 5, 14.67% for seed 6).
To stay in the race, the Lions will need to win their last two games (vs. Vienna Vikings and Panthers Wrocław). An 8-4 record would give them a real chance, especially if they beat a direct competitor like Wrocław in the final game.
If they win only one game (7-5), their fate will depend heavily on the performances of Paris, Madrid, Frankfurt, and Wrocław, with a possible tie between several teams. In this case, their +67 differential and conference record (3-3) could play a role.
In the event of two losses (6-6), their hopes of qualifying would vanish.
The Frankfurt Galaxy: There is no room for error
With only a 16.23% chance of qualifying (6.13% seed 5, 10.10% seed 6), the Frankfurt Galaxy cannot afford to lose. They must win their last two games to reach a 7-5 record. This scenario could keep them in contention, provided that Paris or Madrid (or both) falter in the final stretch.
With a balanced conference record (3-3) and a modest point average (+24), the Galaxy will need a good tiebreaker or a combination of circumstances to cross the line.
The Raiders Tirol: More statistical hope than sporting hope
The Raiders are virtually eliminated. With only a 0.72% chance of qualifying (0.01% seed 5, 0.71% seed 6), it would take a perfect alignment of the planets to see them in the playoffs.
Not only do they need to win their last two games to finish at 7-5, but they also need to hope that several direct competitors collapse: notably Paris, Frankfurt, and one of Madrid, Wrocław, or Prague.
Even then, there is no guarantee that the tiebreakers would go their way. A very unlikely outcome, but mathematically still possible.
As the regular season draws to a close, the battle for the final playoff spots promises to be thrilling. While Madrid and the Rhein Fire have a head start, nothing is guaranteed yet, and a single defeat could shake things up. Paris, Prague, Frankfurt, and even the Raiders still have a slim chance, but they will need to combine must-win victories with their opponents' missteps.
Between head-to-head matchups, potential ties, and complex tiebreakers, every detail will matter. Point average, conference record, and results against the same opponents may be the silent arbiters of this season's outcome.
The next two weeks will therefore be crucial, and every game will have decisive implications. Like the 2025 season, the race for the playoffs will be decided on the last drive.
Comments